Table of Contents
A simple breakdown makes it easy to judge today’s predictions quickly. It takes only a few minutes and uses nothing more than the text of the prediction and a little checking. This article explains the four parts and gives an example of how they fit together.
The Claim
What exactly is predicted? A winner, a goals total or a particular event? State it in one line. If the prediction mixes several claims, separate them and judge each one.
A clear claim is testable; a vague one is not.
The Evidence
Which facts support it? Are they current? Look for numbers, names and comparisons, and try to verify at least one. Evidence that cannot be checked deserves little weight.
The Assumption
What does the prediction take for granted? A star striker playing, a team keeping its shape, the weather staying dry. List the assumptions and check them against the latest news.
A Quick Example
Claim: home win. Evidence: four wins in five at home. Assumption: the first-choice goalkeeper plays. Risk: the visitors have kept six clean sheets away.
The Risk
What could make it wrong, and does the author mention it? A prediction that names no risk is incomplete. If you can think of an obvious risk that the author has not mentioned, take note.
Putting It Together
If the claim is clear, the evidence checkable, the assumptions confirmed and the risk acknowledged, the prediction is well constructed.
Perspective
Predictions are opinions and should be used responsibly and within the law.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the four parts?
Claim, evidence, assumption and risk.
Why note assumptions?
They may no longer hold.
Why note risk?
It shows balance.
How long does it take?
A minute or two.
Are predictions certain?
No.
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